Problem Breakdown

1. Identification of three specific, critical short-term choices or potential events (for the week of June 9th, 2025) that could significantly influence Intel's stock price.
2. Plausible positive, negative, or neutral outcomes associated with each identified critical choice/event.
3. Real-world data for:
   • Intel's stock performance and volatility in the period immediately preceding June 5th, 2025.
   • Probabilities of the identified choices/events occurring in the next week, based on current market conditions, news up to June 5th, 2025, and any scheduled events for the week of June 9th, 2025.
   • Potential percentage impact on Intel's stock price for each outcome, derived from historical reactions to similar events and current analyst sentiment.
4. Historical examples (case studies) from the recent past (e.g., last 6-12 months) demonstrating Intel's or comparable semiconductor companies' stock reactions to analogous events or choices.
5. Appropriate metrics to quantify potential Return on Investment (ROI) and risk for each branch of the decision tree, suitable for short-term (weekly) stock price movements.

Action Plan

1. Develop Initial Decision Framework:
   • Identify three distinct critical choices or potential market/company-specific events relevant to Intel's stock price for the week beginning June 9th, 2025.
   • For each choice/event, delineate a set of potential outcomes (e.g., positive, negative, neutral).
   • Assign initial, illustrative probabilities and estimated percentage price impacts to each outcome to form a preliminary decision tree structure.
2. Gather and Integrate Real-World Data:
   • Retrieve current and recent financial data, including Intel's stock price trends, volatility metrics, and trading volumes leading up to June 5th, 2025. Sources: Reputable financial news portals (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch), Intel's official investor relations website, and established financial data providers (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Google Finance).
   • Search for any scheduled corporate announcements from Intel, significant economic data releases, or major semiconductor industry news anticipated for the week of June 9th, 2025.
   • Utilize the gathered information to refine the initial probabilities and impact estimates in the decision tree, replacing hypothetical values with data-driven ones.
3. Analyze Historical Precedents (Case Studies):
   • Investigate past instances where Intel or its key competitors (e.g., AMD, NVIDIA) experienced similar types of events or faced comparable strategic choices.
   • Analyze the documented stock price reactions and outcomes in these historical scenarios to provide context and empirical evidence. Sources: Financial news archives, company filings, and historical stock market data platforms.
4. Quantify Risk/Reward and Outline Report Structure:
   • For each path in the refined decision tree, calculate an expected value (potential return) and assess associated risk (e.g., potential downside, volatility).
   • Develop ROI/risk ratios for each branch to facilitate comparison.
   • Design the framework for a research report that will present the decision tree, the supporting real-world data, relevant case studies, and the comparative ROI/risk analysis for each identified path.

Let's start by searching for Intel's recent stock performance and any upcoming events that might affect its price next week:

I see that my search query didn't return any results. Let me try a more general search about Intel's current stock performance:

Now I'll gather more specific information about Intel's recent performance and upcoming events that might affect its stock price next week:

I see that the Yahoo Finance link didn't provide the expected information about Intel's stock. Let me try another approach to get Intel's recent stock data:

Information Already Gathered

1. As of June 5, 2025, Intel's (INTC) stock is trading in the range of $20.15to$20.30. The closing price on June 4, 2025, was $20.25.
2. The stock has shown a marginal year-to-date return (approximately 0.35% to 1%) but has seen a substantial decline of about 64% over the past year.
3. Analyst sentiment is predominantly "hold," with some "sell" ratings and one "buy" rating. Price targets vary, with an average suggesting a potential upside.
4. A significant recent event includes an over 8% drop in stock price on April 25, 2025, due to weak revenue and profit forecasts. Other analyst rating changes occurred in March and April 2025.

Next Steps Action Plan

1. Identify three critical short-term choices or potential events specific to Intel or the broader semiconductor market that could significantly influence Intel's stock price in the week commencing June 9, 2025. This will involve researching upcoming Intel announcements, scheduled economic data releases (e.g., inflation reports, manufacturing indices), or anticipated major industry news. Reliable sources include Intel's investor relations page, major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal), and semiconductor industry publications.
2. For each identified critical choice/event, define a set of plausible outcomes (e.g., better-than-expected news, in-line, worse-than-expected news) and assign initial, reasoned probabilities and estimated percentage impacts on the stock price to construct a preliminary decision tree.
3. Gather real-world data to refine these initial probabilities and impact estimates. This includes searching for recent analyst commentary on Intel's short-term prospects, historical volatility of Intel's stock around similar news events, and current market sentiment indicators. Financial data providers and news archives will be key sources.
4. Find and analyze 1-2 concise case studies from the recent past (last 6-12 months) where Intel or a direct competitor (e.g., AMD, NVIDIA) experienced analogous short-term events or faced similar choices. Document the event, the stock's reaction, and the outcome.
5. Calculate potential Return on Investment (ROI) and risk metrics (e.g., expected value, potential downside) for each branch of the refined decision tree. Develop ROI/risk ratios to compare the attractiveness of different scenarios.
6. Structure the final research report, which will present the decision tree, the supporting real-world data and probabilities, the illustrative case studies, and the comparative ROI/risk analysis for each decision path.

Let me search for upcoming Intel events or announcements that might affect its stock price next week:

Let me search for more information about Intel's recent performance and any upcoming events or announcements that could affect its stock price next week:

I'll try to gather more information about Intel's upcoming events and potential market catalysts for next week:

Now I'll search for any semiconductor industry news or market events that could impact Intel's stock price next week:

Information Already Gathered

1. Intel's (INTC) stock closed at $20.25onJune4,2025,andiscurrentlytradingaround$20.15-$20.30. While showing a marginal year-to-date gain, the stock has declined significantly (around 64%) over the past year. A notable price drop of over 8% occurred on April 25, 2025, following weak revenue and profit forecasts.
2. Intel participated in the BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference on June 3, 2025, where the CEO of Intel Products discussed business and product strategy. A webcast is available. No other specific Intel corporate events are scheduled for the week of June 9-15, 2025, according to its IR calendar.
3. The semiconductor industry is currently influenced by ongoing discussions about U.S. tariffs. TSMC's CEO acknowledged some tariff impact but highlighted strong AI demand (June 3, 2025). There were considerations in May 2025 for new tariffs possibly in June, and the comment period for proposed tariffs closed May 7, with potential implementation by late June. Broader trade uncertainties and CHIPS Act re-evaluations are also impacting the sector.

Next Steps Action Plan

1. Define three critical choices or potential events for the week of June 9-13, 2025, that could impact Intel's stock, drawing from the recent BofA conference, ongoing tariff discussions, and potential for broader economic news. For each choice/event, specify distinct positive, neutral, and negative outcomes.
2. Assign initial probabilities and estimated percentage stock price impacts to each defined outcome to construct a preliminary decision tree.
3. Refine these probabilities and impacts by seeking out analyst reactions to the BofA conference, historical Intel stock responses to tariff news or relevant economic data releases, and current semiconductor sector sentiment. This information can be found in financial news archives, market analysis reports, and Intel's investor relations materials.
4. Identify and analyze 1-2 recent (past 6-12 months) case studies of Intel or a key competitor reacting to similar types of events (e.g., major conference presentations, significant policy news). Document the event, stock reaction, and outcome, using financial news archives and company announcements.
5. For each branch of the refined decision tree, calculate appropriate short-term ROI and risk metrics (e.g., expected value, potential percentage gain/loss).
6. Develop a comprehensive report framework that will present the decision tree, the data supporting the probabilities and impacts, the illustrative case studies, and a comparative analysis of the ROI/risk for each scenario.

Let me search for analyst reactions to Intel's recent BofA conference appearance:

Let me check the transcript from Intel's BofA Securities conference to understand key points that might affect the stock:

I need to find more information about the key points from Intel's BofA Securities conference. Let me search for a more complete transcript or summary:

Let me check the SmartKarma insight about the Intel BofA conference to get more details:

Information Already Gathered

1. Intel's (INTC) stock closed at $20.25onJune4,2025,andiscurrentlytradinginthe$20.15-$20.30 range. The stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 64% over the past year, despite a marginal year-to-date gain. A notable price drop of over 8% occurred on April 25, 2025, following the announcement of weak revenue and profit forecasts.
2. Intel participated in the Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference on June 3, 2025, where Michelle Johnston Holthaus, CEO of Intel Products, discussed the company's business and product strategy. Key takeaways from initial reports suggest a strategic shift in A14 capacity investment, now requiring customer commitments before expansion, and potentially a partnership with Samsung for foundry flexibility. Intel's official investor relations calendar does not list any other specific corporate events for the week of June 9-15, 2025.
3. The semiconductor industry is currently navigating uncertainties related to potential U.S. tariffs, with discussions ongoing and a comment period for proposed tariffs having closed in early May 2025, suggesting possible implementation by late June. TSMC's CEO recently acknowledged some tariff impact but also highlighted continued strong demand in the AI sector. Re-evaluations of the CHIPS Act are also contributing to the dynamic industry landscape.

Next Steps Action Plan

1. Further investigate the key discussion points and strategic announcements from Intel's participation in the June 3rd BofA Securities Global Technology Conference. Focus on details regarding the A14 capacity strategy, the nature of any foundry partnerships (e.g., with Samsung), Intel's competitive positioning in PC and server markets, and any commentary on AI product roadmaps or tariff impacts. This information can be sought from detailed conference summaries, analyst reports, and financial news coverage of the event.
2. Identify three critical, distinct short-term (for the week of June 9-13, 2025) choices or potential events that could significantly influence Intel's stock price. These should be based on the BofA conference outcomes, the evolving semiconductor tariff situation, and any major macroeconomic data releases scheduled for that week which could impact the broader market and tech sector.
3. For each of the three critical choices/events, delineate a set of plausible outcomes (e.g., positive, neutral, negative development). Research and assign reasoned, data-informed (rather than purely hypothetical) probabilities to each outcome and estimate the potential percentage impact on Intel's stock price. This will involve analyzing historical stock reactions to similar news, current analyst sentiment, and Intel's stock volatility. Sources include financial news archives, analyst ratings, and market data platforms.
4. Search for and analyze 1-2 specific case studies from the past 6-12 months where Intel or a close competitor (e.g., AMD, NVIDIA) faced analogous short-term catalysts (e.g., significant strategy announcements at conferences, major tariff news, unexpected product news). Document the event, the immediate stock price reaction, and the short-term outcome to provide context for the decision tree.
5. Based on the refined decision tree (with choices, outcomes, probabilities, and impacts), calculate the expected ROI and risk metrics (e.g., expected value, potential upside/downside percentages) for each branch of the decision tree.
6. Develop a comprehensive report framework that will logically present:
   • The constructed decision tree with its three critical choices and potential outcomes.
   • The real-world data and reasoning supporting the assigned probabilities and impact estimates.
   • The summarized case studies illustrating similar past scenarios.
   • A clear calculation and comparison of the ROI/risk ratios for each branch of the decision tree, aiding in the overall risk assessment for short-term investment in Intel stock.

Let me search for more information about Intel's recent strategic announcements and upcoming events:

Let me search for more information about Intel's upcoming product launches or announcements that might affect its stock price:

Let me search for recent analyst ratings or recommendations for Intel stock:

Let me try a more general search for recent analyst opinions on Intel:

Information Already Gathered

1. Intel's (INTC) stock closed at $20.25onJune4,2025,andwastradingaround$20.15-$20.30 on June 5, 2025. The stock has declined approximately 64% over the past year but shows a marginal year-to-date gain. A significant price drop of over 8% occurred on April 25, 2025, due to weak revenue and profit forecasts.
2. Intel participated in the Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference on June 3, 2025. Initial reports indicate a strategic shift in A14 capacity investment, now requiring customer commitments, and a potential foundry partnership with Samsung. Intel's official IR calendar shows no other specific corporate events for the week of June 9-15, 2025.
3. The semiconductor industry is facing uncertainty regarding potential U.S. tariffs, with possible implementation by late June 2025. TSMC's CEO acknowledged some tariff impact but noted strong AI demand. CHIPS Act re-evaluations are also ongoing.
4. Information on Intel's product roadmap includes the 18A process node entering risk production, with mass production anticipated in the second half of 2025. Panther Lake, the lead 18A product, is expected to be sampled in 2025 with a consumer launch in early 2026. Lunar Lake architecture details have also been unveiled.
5. Direct searches for recent (June 2025) specific analyst ratings and price targets for Intel have not yet yielded comprehensive results.

Next Steps Action Plan
The previous action plan remains largely relevant as progress has been made but key data for the decision tree is still needed. The next steps will focus on acquiring this specific data:

1. Deepen Analysis of BofA Conference and Product Strategy: Seek more detailed summaries, transcripts, or analyst commentary regarding Intel's June 3rd BofA Securities Global Technology Conference presentation. Focus on extracting specific statements or implications regarding A14 capacity, the Samsung partnership, AI strategy (including Lunar Lake and Panther Lake timelines/impact), competitive positioning, and any remarks on tariff impacts that could influence short-term stock movement. Reliable sources include financial news platforms (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal), specialized semiconductor industry news sites, and potentially Intel's investor relations website for webcast replays or transcripts if available.
2. Identify Critical Short-Term Catalysts & Define Outcomes: Based on the BofA conference insights, current tariff discussions, and any scheduled macroeconomic announcements for the week of June 9-13, 2025, pinpoint three distinct critical choices or potential events. For each, delineate clear positive, neutral, and negative outcomes relevant to Intel's stock price next week.
3. Gather Data for Probabilities and Impacts: Research recent analyst reports (even if not from June, general sentiment from Q2 2025 can be useful), financial news archives, and market analysis to assign data-informed probabilities and potential percentage stock price impacts for each outcome in the decision tree. Analyze Intel's historical stock volatility and reactions to similar past events (e.g., previous conference presentations, tariff news, product milestone announcements).
4. Find Relevant Case Studies: Search for 1-2 specific instances in the last 6-12 months where Intel, or a direct competitor (e.g., AMD, NVIDIA), experienced analogous short-term events (e.g., major strategy shifts announced at conferences, significant industry policy news, or unexpected product updates). Document the event, the stock's immediate reaction, and the short-term outcome to provide context. Financial news archives and company press releases will be primary sources.
5. Calculate ROI/Risk and Structure Report: Once the decision tree is populated with data-driven probabilities and impacts, calculate the expected value and risk metrics for each branch. Then, develop the comprehensive report framework, including the decision tree, supporting data, case studies, and the ROI/risk analysis.

Let me search for more detailed information about Intel's recent announcements and market position:

Let me search for information about the semiconductor industry and potential tariff impacts:

Based on all the information gathered, I'll now create a comprehensive risk analysis for Intel stock with a decision tree, real-world data, case studies, and ROI/risk ratios.

I need to fix the Python code by breaking it into smaller parts:

Information Already Gathered

1. Intel's (INTC) stock closed at $20.25onJune4,2025,andwastradingaround$20.15-$20.30 on June 5, 2025. The stock has declined approximately 64% over the past year but shows a marginal year-to-date gain. A significant price drop of over 8% occurred on April 25, 2025, due to weak revenue and profit forecasts.
2. Intel participated in the Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference on June 3, 2025. Initial reports indicate a strategic shift in A14 capacity investment, now requiring customer commitments, and a potential foundry partnership with Samsung. Intel's official IR calendar shows no other specific corporate events for the week of June 9-15, 2025.
3. The semiconductor industry is facing uncertainty regarding potential U.S. tariffs, with possible implementation by late June 2025. TSMC's CEO acknowledged some tariff impact but noted strong AI demand. CHIPS Act re-evaluations are also ongoing.
4. Information on Intel's product roadmap includes the 18A process node entering risk production, with mass production anticipated in the second half of 2025. Panther Lake, the lead 18A product, is expected to be sampled in 2025 with a consumer launch in early 2026. Lunar Lake architecture details have also been unveiled.
5. A Futurum Group study from April 2025 indicated that only 55.5% of enterprise ITDMs prefer Intel processors for the 2025 AI PC refresh, a notable decline. Intel's Lunar Lake (Core Ultra Gen 2) met market expectations but its late entry allowed competitors like AMD and Qualcomm to gain an early lead in the Copilot+ AI PC segment. Lunar Lake's production by TSMC also makes it expensive for volume tiers.
6. The first part of the decision tree concerning "Tariff Developments" has been constructed, outlining potential positive, neutral, and negative outcomes with associated probabilities and estimated price impacts.

Next Steps Action Plan

1. Continue constructing the decision tree by defining the outcomes, probabilities, and estimated price impacts for "Decision Point 2: 18A Production Milestone Updates." This will involve leveraging the gathered information on Intel's 18A progress, stated timelines, and historical precedents for production milestones.
2. Complete the decision tree by defining the outcomes, probabilities, and estimated price impacts for "Decision Point 3: AI Market Position Developments." This will incorporate insights from the BofA conference, competitive landscape in AI (AMD, NVIDIA), and Intel's AI product strategy (Lunar Lake, Panther Lake).
3. Compile and present relevant case studies from the past 6-12 months involving Intel or its competitors (e.g., AMD, NVIDIA) that illustrate stock reactions to similar events like earnings announcements with forward guidance or major AI product/strategy announcements.
4. Calculate and present the ROI/risk metrics (expected value, upside potential, downside risk, risk/reward ratio) for each branch of the three decision points.
5. Calculate and present a combined expected value across all decision points and provide an overall assessment of the short-term risk/reward profile for investing in Intel stock.
6. Structure the complete analysis into a coherent report format, presenting the current situation, the full decision tree with supporting reasoning, the case studies, and the comprehensive ROI/risk analysis.

Let me continue building the decision tree with the remaining decision points:

Now let me create the case studies and ROI/risk analysis sections:

I need to fix the error in the calculation function:

Now let me create a visualization of the decision tree and risk analysis:

Information Already Gathered

1. Intel's (INTC) stock closed at $20.25onJune4,2025,andwastradinginthe$20.15-$20.30 range on June 5, 2025. The stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 64% over the past year, despite a marginal year-to-date gain. A notable price drop of over 8% occurred on April 25, 2025, following weak revenue and profit forecasts.
2. Three critical decision points for Intel's stock price in the upcoming week (June 9-15, 2025) have been identified: Tariff Developments, 18A Production Milestone Updates, and AI Market Position Developments. For each decision point, potential positive, neutral, and negative outcomes have been defined, along with assigned probabilities and estimated percentage price impacts based on recent news and industry trends.
3. Key information influencing these decision points includes: Intel's participation in the BofA Securities 2025 Global Technology Conference on June 3, 2025 (discussing A14 capacity investment and a potential Samsung foundry partnership); ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. semiconductor tariffs (with possible implementation by late June); Intel's 18A process node entering risk production (mass production H2 2025); and competitive pressures in the AI PC market, where Intel's Lunar Lake processors face challenges despite meeting market expectations.
4. Case studies have been compiled, including Intel's Q1 2025 earnings release (stock drop due to weak guidance) and AMD's AI PC announcement (AMD stock gain, Intel drop due to competitive pressure), highlighting the importance of forward guidance and AI market positioning.
5. ROI/Risk analysis has been performed for each decision point: Tariff Developments (Expected Value -0.25%, Risk/Reward Ratio 0.87), 18A Production Updates (Expected Value -0.93%, Risk/Reward Ratio 0.56), and AI Market Position (Expected Value +0.20%, Risk/Reward Ratio 1.14).
6. The combined expected value across all three decision points is -0.98%, leading to an implied price target range of $19.65-$20.46 for Intel stock next week, with an overall neutral risk/reward assessment suggesting a balanced short-term outlook.

Next Steps Action Plan

1. Synthesize all the gathered information—including the current stock situation, the detailed decision tree (with its three critical choices, outcomes, probabilities, and impacts), the illustrative case studies, and the comprehensive ROI/risk analysis—into a final, well-structured research report.
2. Organize the report to present a clear narrative, beginning with an overview of Intel's current market standing, followed by the in-depth analysis of each critical decision point, supported by relevant case studies, and concluding with the summarized ROI/risk ratios and the overall short-term investment outlook for Intel stock.
3. Review the compiled report to ensure logical flow, completeness of information as per the initial task, and accuracy of the presented data and analyses.